Operation index
Every command below has an executed example, setup when required, generated field types, and a checked response. All requests use the version 1 envelope.
| Operation | Purpose |
|---|---|
| append_forecast | Append a supplied forecast after validating its lifecycle and evidence. |
| bayes | Update a binary probability from two conditional evidence likelihoods. |
| binary_score | Score one binary forecast with Brier and natural-log loss. |
| calibration | Diagnose reliability and resolution while preserving unresolved coverage. |
| categorical_score | Score a categorical distribution using categorical Brier and the ordered ranked rule. |
| cluster_bootstrap | Estimate a paired score-difference interval by resampling whole event clusters. |
| compare | Compare model and baseline Brier on paired, uniquely identified questions. |
| conditional_chain | Multiply a nonempty chain of conditional event probabilities. |
| create_question | Register a frozen question version in the durable journal. |
| crps | Evaluate an empirical continuous predictive distribution in the outcome’s units. |
| decision | Select the action with highest expected utility for a binary forecast. |
| evaluate | Evaluate a declared cohort at common forecast and resolution cutoffs. |
| event_probability | Estimate an event probability in a remaining constant-hazard window. |
| get_ledger | Retrieve the complete, validated journal for one question version. |
| grid_score | Carry forecasts forward over a frozen time grid and average within one question. |
| indicator | Validate a two-branch indicator model and measure expected information gain. |
| list_questions | List question/version keys using stable lexicographic pagination. |
| mixture | Combine weighted conditional probabilities over exhaustive scenarios. |
| panel | Summarize supplied human or model elicitation records without inventing missing answers. |
| pool | Return arithmetic and logit aggregates under declared weights and alpha. |
| quantile | Compute a type-7 empirical quantile with linear interpolation. |
| recalibrate | Apply a declared intercept/slope mapping in log-odds space. |
| reference_class | Report empirical counts and a declared Beta-Binomial outside view. |
| resolve_question | Append an adjudication from a source in the frozen question contract. |
| select_calibration | Select a calibration grid candidate on training outcomes, then score the untouched holdout. |
| sensitivity | Compute a posterior assumption envelope from ordered positive likelihood-ratio bounds. |
| union | Return coherent union/intersection bounds and an exact union when overlap is known. |
| update_forecast | Compute and append an evidence-based Bayesian revision atomically. |
| validate_holdout | Validate declared question, event-cluster and time separation. |
| value_of_information | Measure net expected decision value of observing an indicator before acting. |