bayes

Update a binary probability from two conditional evidence likelihoods.

Contract

Likelihoods describe the supplied observation under each hypothesis, conditional on earlier evidence. Impossible evidence is an error. This calculation does not append a journal revision.

Fields

This operation needs no existing question or forecast. Use --memory for a calculation-only session.

Request

Send this object on one line. It is expanded below for readability.

{
  "version": 1,
  "id": "example",
  "command": {
    "op": "bayes",
    "prior": 0.3,
    "given_h": 0.8,
    "given_not_h": 0.2
  }
}

Response

This response is generated by executing the example against the current binary. Commit timestamps, when present, are shown as <runtime UTC seconds>; the actual protocol returns integer UTC seconds.

{
  "version": 1,
  "id": "example",
  "result": {
    "posterior": 0.631578947368421
  }
}

Verification

The documentation gate executes the setup and request, then checks the following result fields against independently specified expectations:

Float comparisons use a 1e-12 tolerance. Request schema validation and cross-record validation still apply. See errors and recovery for failure handling.