event_probability

Estimate an event probability in a remaining constant-hazard window.

Contract

Rate and duration use compatible units and are finite and nonnegative. The Poisson/constant-hazard assumption is explicit; bursty or changing hazards need another model.

Fields

This operation needs no existing question or forecast. Use --memory for a calculation-only session.

Request

Send this object on one line. It is expanded below for readability.

{
  "version": 1,
  "id": "example",
  "command": {
    "op": "event_probability",
    "rate": 0.1,
    "duration": 10.0
  }
}

Response

This response is generated by executing the example against the current binary. Commit timestamps, when present, are shown as <runtime UTC seconds>; the actual protocol returns integer UTC seconds.

{
  "version": 1,
  "id": "example",
  "result": {
    "model": "constant_hazard_poisson",
    "probability": 0.6321205588285577
  }
}

Verification

The documentation gate executes the setup and request, then checks the following result fields against independently specified expectations:

Float comparisons use a 1e-12 tolerance. Request schema validation and cross-record validation still apply. See errors and recovery for failure handling.