Compact human-readable result
- Question and version:
- Forecast as of / evidence cutoff:
- Event deadline and resolution source:
- Probability:
- Outside-view starting point:
- Main supporting and opposing evidence:
- Key assumptions and sensitivities:
- What would change the forecast:
- Scoring and resolution plan:
- Limitations:
Omit an unsupported field rather than filling it with invented detail. If no usable probability can be estimated, say what is missing. Give concise reasoning, not private internal deliberation.
Machine-readable record
Use this illustrative shape when JSON is requested; null is allowed for unknown optional values. The schema is an original pack convention, not an Anthropic-required format.
{
"question_id": "synthetic-launch-001",
"question_version": 1,
"question": "Will the specified release be generally available before the agreed deadline?",
"forecast_as_of": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"evidence_cutoff": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"event_deadline": "2027-04-01T00:00:00Z",
"probability": 0.63,
"status": "open",
"method": "reference class plus one likelihood update",
"sources": [],
"assumptions": ["Illustrative probabilities supplied by the user"],
"sensitivity": {
"kind": "assumption_envelope",
"low": null,
"high": null
},
"previous_forecast_id": null,
"resolution": null,
"scoring_convention": "binary_brier_0_1"
}
Complete synthetic example
Given a fully defined launch question, 12/40 comparable attempts succeeded on time. Use the empirical 30% prior. A supplied independent signal has likelihood 0.8 if on-time and 0.2 if late, giving 0.24/(0.24+0.14)=63.16%.
Report approximately 63%, conditional on the supplied likelihoods and comparability. A second article reproducing that signal provides no extra likelihood. If the plausible LR spans 2 to 6, the prior 0.3 implies a sensitivity range of approximately 46.15% to 72%; call it an assumption envelope, not a confidence interval.
Potential update trigger: independently verified completion of a key dependency. Resolution and Brier scoring occur later. The entire case is synthetic and supplies no empirical evidence that the skill forecasts well.