Empirical updating source
Pavel Atanasov, Jens Witkowski, Lyle Ungar, Barbara Mellers and Philip Tetlock (2020), Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 160, 19–35. DOI; author manuscript.
The study analyzes update frequency, magnitude and confirmation propensity in tournament data. These associations do not justify an invariant small-step rule for each observation.
Adaptation boundary
The append-only ledger, field names, event-time safeguards and automation boundaries are engineering adaptations. The authors did not invent keeping records or Bayesian revision. The skill does not guarantee continuous monitoring or access to future information.
Bibliographic grounding checked on 2026-09-15. Access may vary. Full papers are linked, not redistributed; these instructions and examples are newly written.