All numeric cases below are synthetic teaching examples, not empirical research findings.
Example: honest revision
Prior 40%, then verified information arrives with LR=1.5. Prior odds=2/3; posterior odds=1; new probability=50%. Append the new record and preserve the 40% forecast.
Example: decisive evidence
A previously uncertain event is officially completed and the resolution rule is satisfied. Resolve it. Do not move from 40% to 42% because “superforecasters make small updates.”
Example: unchanged review
The only new story repeats last week’s announcement. Log that it adds no new evidentiary origin and retain the probability.
Counterexample
Changing a 30% forecast to 90% after the result and presenting it as the original forecast destroys prospective scoring.