Direct superforecaster study
Barbara Mellers, Eric Stone, Terry Murray, Angela Minster, Nick Rohrbaugh, Michael Bishop, Eva Chen, Joshua Baker, Yuan Hou, Michael Horowitz, Lyle Ungar and Philip Tetlock (2015), Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 10(3), 267–281. Publisher.
Contribution: selected high performers retained unusually strong performance across subsequent tournament seasons; the study considers multiple explanations.
Important qualification
Clifford E. Hauenstein, Rick P. Thomas, David A. Illingworth and Michael R. Dougherty (2025; online 2024), Rethinking the Role of Teams and Training in Geopolitical Forecasting: The Effect of Uncontrolled Method Variance on Statistical Conclusions. Publisher. It questions causal/latent-ability interpretations after modeling choice, timing and difficulty; it is a reanalysis, not a fresh independent tournament replication.
Adaptation boundary
The model-contamination audit and proposed holdout design are pack safeguards. They do not reproduce the original dataset or certify anyone.
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