Original and applied contributions
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1979), Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures, in TIMS Studies in Management Science, volume 12, 313–327, is an early methodological source identified by the later reference-class literature. See Kahneman’s Princeton publication list for bibliographic confirmation. This pack’s operational source reading is Flyvbjerg’s author manuscript below, not a claim to have inspected the complete 1979 chapter.
Bent Flyvbjerg (2006), From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right, Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15. Author manuscript (repository posting is 2013; the article is 2006). It explicitly credits Kahneman and Tversky and develops practical reference-class forecasting for projects. See its section “The Planning Fallacy and Reference Class Forecasting.”
Adaptation boundary
The dataset audit, Beta-Binomial illustration and software examples are pack implementations of standard statistical ideas, not Flyvbjerg’s prescribed algorithm. Historical project evidence is not a validated probability model for arbitrary new domains.
Source links checked for bibliographic grounding on 2026-09-15. Access may vary; linked full papers are not redistributed. The operational instructions and examples are newly written, not quotations from the authors.