Research lineage
Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers, Nick Rohrbaugh and Eva Chen (2014), Forecasting Tournaments: Tools for Increasing Transparency and Improving the Quality of Debate, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 23(4), 290–295. Publisher.
Contribution: tournament-based accountability makes claims testable through explicit probabilities and outcomes. Operationalization and measurement have a much broader history; there is no justified sole-inventor claim for “writing clear forecast questions.”
Adaptation boundary
The contract fields, versioning rules, source hierarchy and software examples are original operational design for this pack. They are not reproduced from a GJP instrument. Research does not establish that this schema by itself improves accuracy.
Source links checked for bibliographic grounding on 2026-09-15. Access may vary; linked full papers are not redistributed. The operational instructions and examples are newly written, not quotations from the authors.