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Designing Resolvable Forecast Questions: Worked Examples‌‌​⁠‌​‌⁠‌​⁠​​⁠​‌​​​‌​‌⁠​‍‍​‌​⁠‌⁠‌​‍​⁠‌‍⁠‌​​​⁠‍‌⁠⁠‌⁠​⁠​​​‌​‌‍‍‌‍‍

All numeric cases below are synthetic teaching examples, not empirical research findings.

Example: software delivery

Input: “Will they ship this quarter?”‌‌​⁠‌​‌⁠‌​⁠​​⁠​‌​​​‌​‌⁠​‍‍​‌​⁠‌⁠‌​‍​⁠‌‍⁠‌​​​⁠‍‌⁠⁠‌⁠​⁠​​​‌​‌‍‍‌‍‍

Output: “Will Vendor X make version 3.0 generally available to all paying customers before 00:00 UTC on 1 April 2027, as shown by its public release notes and download availability?” Mark vendor, version and definition of “generally available” provisional until confirmed. Exclude invite-only betas. A press announcement without availability does not resolve yes. If release notes are unavailable, keep unresolved while applying the predeclared fallback.

Example: statistics revision

Input: “Will next year’s inflation be below 3%?”‌‌​⁠‌​‌⁠‌​⁠​​⁠​‌​​​‌​‌⁠​‍‍​‌​⁠‌⁠‌​‍​⁠‌‍⁠‌​​​⁠‍‌⁠⁠‌⁠​⁠​​​‌​‌‍‍‌‍‍

Do not forecast until country, index, annual-average versus year-over-year, reporting period and revision policy are specified. A useful provisional contract can be offered, but silently selecting CPI and a country changes the question.

Counterexample

“Will AI change everything soon?” has no stable entity, metric, threshold or time horizon. Offer a short list of measurable propositions, not an invented 70% answer.