Original model
Ville A. Satopää, Jonathan Baron, Dean P. Foster, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock and Lyle H. Ungar (2014), Combining Multiple Probability Predictions Using a Simple Logit Model, International Journal of Forecasting, 30(2), 344–356. DOI. Author-uploaded full text. Section 2.1, equation (1), gives the aggregator; section 2.2 fits its parameter using proper scores.
Jonathan Baron, Lyle Ungar, Barbara Mellers and Philip E. Tetlock (2014), Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme, Decision Analysis, 11(2), 133–145. DOI; author manuscript.
Adaptation boundary
The dependency audit, alpha=1 unvalidated default, strict endpoint handling and test split protocol are implementation safeguards. No historical aggregate-performance advantage is claimed for this AI skill.
Bibliographic grounding checked on 2026-09-15. Access may vary. Full papers are linked, not redistributed; these instructions and examples are newly written.