Original method
Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer (1963), An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts, Management Science, 9(3), 458–467. Publisher. An earlier RAND report is available as RM-727/1 (1962).
Contribution: iterative questionnaires with controlled feedback for group expert judgment.
Distinct GJP evidence
Mellers et al. (2014), Psychological Strategies for Winning a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament. Publisher. It studied training and collaboration in a tournament, not a pure replication of classic Delphi.
Hauenstein, Thomas, Illingworth and Dougherty (2025; online 2024) reanalyzed team/training results and found interpretations of latent ability sensitive to method variables. Reanalysis.
Adaptation boundary
The two-round default, AI provenance fields and dependence audit are pack choices. Neither source establishes that simulated personas reproduce human team effects.
Source links checked for bibliographic grounding on 2026-09-15. Access may vary; linked full papers are not redistributed. The operational instructions and examples are newly written, not quotations from the authors.