Lineage
Probability chain rules and total probability are standard mathematical identities, not inventions of the Good Judgment Project. Fermi estimation is a related tradition of dimensional approximation, not a theorem of superforecasting.
Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Publisher. The book popularizes breaking hard problems into more tractable components; it is a synthesis, not a peer-reviewed identification of a unique decomposition inventor.
Adaptation boundary
The equations, synthetic engineering examples and dependency checks here are mathematical applications designed for this pack. The examples are not empirical GJP data. No accuracy gain from AI decomposition is assumed.
Source links checked for bibliographic grounding on 2026-09-15. Access may vary; linked full papers are not redistributed. The operational instructions and examples are newly written, not quotations from the authors.