Decomposition source
Allan H. Murphy (1973), A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12(4), 595–600. DOI. Contribution: the reliability, resolution and uncertainty partition of the probability score.
Gneiting and Raftery (2007), Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation. Author manuscript, provides a wider proper-scoring framework.
Adaptation boundary
The exact-versus-binned diagnostic and Python output contract are this pack’s implementation of the identities. Calibration tables describe a dataset; the pack does not infer permanent latent ability or claim a confidence band without an explicit statistical model.
Bibliographic grounding checked on 2026-09-15. Access may vary. Full papers are linked, not redistributed; these instructions and examples are newly written.