Original contribution
Thomas Bayes (1763), An Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances, communicated posthumously by Richard Price, Philosophical Transactions, 53, 370–418. DOI.
The historical essay is foundational to inverse probability. The modern general notation and sequential odds procedure are later mathematical formulations; they must not be represented as verbatim Bayes instructions or an invention by Tetlock.
Relationship to forecasting research
Atanasov, Witkowski, Ungar, Mellers and Tetlock (2020) use Bayesian updating as a normative reference while studying real forecast revisions. Author manuscript.
Adaptation boundary
Source deduplication, likelihood sensitivity and the Python helper are original implementation choices. The model can propagate bad likelihood assumptions accurately. It does not certify a forecast.
Source links checked for bibliographic grounding on 2026-09-15. Access may vary; linked full papers are not redistributed. The operational instructions and examples are newly written, not quotations from the authors.